Les Misérables – Global pecking order and its disorders

Sun Set at Dragon Land
Sun Set at Dragon Land

By Udit Bhaskar Roy, Kolkata

Global pecking order and its disorders

Continuing from the last article, let us understand how the geopolitical contours are changing fast.

Through Western Power still accounts for the bulk of the global GDP, but the share is shrinking fast. Just like ice in the Arctic and Antarctica.

The reason is ironically just the opposite. Population cooling.

Ultimately, economics would not have been a subject in the first place if humans had not created an asset called money. Their entire focus of this subject is to relentlessly increase its volume and circulation. For that, it needs consumption. Each human should become a dinosaur to economy and economics to prosper.

With consumers declining rapidly in the West, their economies are becoming increasingly dependent on the Eastern and African economies and consumers (still much smaller and have immense potential to grow rapidly in the next decade).

The Challenge starts. The Western world wants the East to consider them as their protectorate state, which the Asian dinosaurs are not agreeable to.

So while I discussed 2 formations in the last discussion. The Eurasian Axis and the Western Alliance, today I bring forth the 3rd. India + Israel + France. This partnership is really ensuring that the game remains wide open with no clear winners.

The pressure is so immense that the White Supremacist Islanders AUKUS came out in the open.

However is it a surprise? Actually no.

We all know Brexit.

Hence let us see from the economic prism how things stand:-

BRICS and QUAD:- Both formed by 2 bitter rivals with one common thread:- India.

EU is dead serious about the Indian market too.

In an effort to counter China’s BRI project, the USA and it’s allies have launched B3W ( Build back better world). Well, their strategy is simple. Throw dollars at near-zero rates to countries under a debt trap with China with high-interest loans and induce these nations to pay out their high-interest debts of China with zero interest dollars of B3W.

However what will be the role of India in this project?

While the West has everything, they lack one critical resource to execute and complete Gigantic projects which BRI has started in the last 2 decades- huge skilled human resources (something which India can provide in millions).

If successful, China will get cornered and we know how a cat behaves when cornered. So, in WW3, China will take the place of Germany. And what will be India? My intuition will be like Switzerland is like the modern Viswa Guru of inaction.  

Because no side will like to see India on the other side. And India will never show the might of the USA or Russia as historically we never prefer to attack first.

But at present, all geopolitical predictions will depend on how COVID economics is unfolding in the next couple of years.

Till such time wait and see.

Udit Bhaskar Roy
Udit Bhaskar Roy

Author: Udit Bhaskar Roy, a busy management guru with over 3 decades of business development expertise in MNCs. His lab skills during the Physics classes at Motijheel College always get reflected in his critical quantum analysis of the situation. Apart from a die-hard fan for music and classical literature, He loves to click some wonderful moments through the digital eye & lenses. Iron hand administrator, yet affectionate enough to be admired by all.

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