A new chapter is unfolding through Afghanistan in South East and Central Asia.
By Udit Bhaskar Roy
Let us understand what have changed in last two decades.
The fundamental change in middle east and Central Asia politics is, USA is now an oil exporter and world is shifting away from crude. This is weakening Petro dollar- the major source of Wahabi Islam. Struggle is now economically directed with an undercover of religious aspirations.
So, now a parallel Sunni world is popping up with non Middle East countries- Turkey/Pakistan/Malaysia till now in open rest is waiting in the queue. These countries need to present a moderate Islam as they don’t have crude to fall back. So they need to accommodate others’ view just to ensure FDI is flowing well. No option left.
Now let me get into Afghanistan:-
If we look into the ethnic breakup, 42% is Pastuns,30% Hazari and the rest comprise the 18%.
Hazari are Shias and so are some other groups. Now they are controlled by ambitious Iran.
The root cause of the problem is there.
Iraq is a predominant Shia country. But Saddam was a Sunni. He maintained full religious harmony. USA removed him to make Iran and hence, Shias more dominant to counter balance Saudis.As of now, the situation is such Afghanistan can break up.
Taliban do not have petro dollar- funding. They need to be moderate to attract the Foreign Direct Investment.
Pakistan will be worried. As soon as Taliban get recognition as a Bonafide country representative, the Pashtuns of Pakistan territory will get emboldened and may wish to get merged with Afghanistan. Balochistan is more than happy to instigate the disintegration of Pakistan and to get liberated from PAK control. Balochistan is even worse in terms of the silent holocaust of Baloch people.India should look for POK and COK integration under the changed world order with weakened petro dollars.
China will have to be wary of what happens with Uighurs. Or the other way round. Tibet and Dalai Lama Administration in exile will be a point to ponder over.
USA have created a planned mess on the borders of China to tie it down to it’s own boundaries. Hence China will try the South China Sea card along with Nth to get explored in all aspects.
Slowly Taliban at Afghanistan will get natural acceptance from interested party for centra Asia access.
Talib or No Talib Afghan’s have to find the solution for themselfves. External powers can not solve your internal issues.
Petro Dollar politics will create much more ripple and electric vehicles by 2030 surly fueled up the worries among the OPEC stakeholders.
Let’s see what is coming out in big After Afghan – US mary go round in World politics.
Udit Bhaskar Roy, a busy management guru with over 3 decades of business development expertise in MNCs. His lab skills during the Physics classes at Motijheel College always get reflected in his critical quantum analysis of the situation. Apart from a die-hard fan for music and classical literature, He loves to click some wonderful moments through the digital eye & lenses. Iron hand administrator, yet affectionate enough to be admired by all.