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According to the latest release (at 1500 Hrs. IST)by the Cyclone Warning Divisionof the India Meteorological Department:

The Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm‘AMPHAN’ (pronounced as UM-PUN) over west-central and adjoining central parts of South Bay of Bengal moved nearly northwards with a speed of 04 kmph during past 06 hours, intensified further into a Super Cyclonic Storm and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 18^th May 2020 over west-central and adjoining central parts of South Bay of Bengal near latitude 13.4°N and longitude 86.2 °E, about 770 km nearly south of Paradip (Odisha), 920 km south-southwest of Digha (West Bengal) and 1040 km south-southwest of Khepupara (Bangladesh).

It is very likely to move nearly northwards for some more time and then north-northeastwards across the northwest Bay of Bengal and cross West Bengal – Bangladesh coasts between Digha (West Bengal) and Hatiya Islands (Bangladesh) close to Sundarbans during the Afternoon / Evening of 20^th May 2020 as an extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm with maximum sustained wind speed of 165-175 kmph gusting to 185 kmph.

Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:

(1) Heavy rainfall Warning:

 Odisha

Coastal Odisha is likely to experience light to moderate rainfall at many places from today evening with heavy falls at isolated places over coastal Odisha (Gajapati, Ganjam, Puri, Jagatsinghpur & Kendrapara Districts) on 18^th May 2020. Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places over north coastal Odisha (Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapara, Jajpur, Balasore, Bhadrak & Mayurbhanj Districts) and isolated heavy falls over Khordha & Puri districts on 19^th May and isolated heavy rainfall over north Odisha (Bhadrak, Balasore, Mayurbhanj, Jajpur, Kendrapara and Keonjhar Districts) on 20^th May 2020.

 West Bengal

Coastal districts of Gangetic West Bengal (East Medinipur, South & North 24 Parganas) are likely to experience light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy falls at isolated places on 19^th May. Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places & extremely heavy falls at isolated places likely over Gangetic West Bengal (east & west Medinipur, south & north 24 Parganas, Howrah, Hoogli, Kolkata and adjoining districts)on 20^th May and isolated heavy rain over interior districts on 21^st May 2020.

Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim

Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over Malda & Dinajpur districts on 20^th May and over most of the districts of Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim on 21^st May 2020.

Assam & Meghalaya

        Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over the western districts of Assam & Meghalaya on 21^st May.

(2) Wind warning

West Bengal & Odisha

• Squally wind speed reaching 45 to 55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph is likely to commence along and off south Odisha coast from 18^th evening, increase becoming 55 to 65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph extend to along & off north Odisha coast from 19^th morning and along and off West Bengal coast from 19^th afternoon.
•  The wind speed will gradually increase becoming gale wind speed reaching 75 to 85 kmph gusting to 95 kmph from 20^th morning along and off north Odisha (Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapara, Bhadrak, Balasore and Mayurbhanj districts) and West Bengal (east & west Medinipur, south & north 24 Parganas, Howrah, Hoogli, Kolkata Districts). It will gradually increase thereafter becoming 110 to 120 kmph gusting to 135 kmph along & off the above-mentioned districts of North Odisha.
•  Gale wind speed reaching 165 to 175 kmph gusting to 195 kmph very likely along & off east Medinipur and north & south 24 Parganas districts and 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph over Kolkata, Hoogli, Howrah and West Medinipur Districts of West Bengal during the time of landfall (20^th afternoon tonight).
•  Squally wind speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph likely to prevail over Puri, Khordha, Cuttack, Jajpur districts of Odisha during 20^th May 2020.

Deep-Sea area

• Gale wind speed reaching 220-230 gusting to 255 kmph is prevailing over west-central and adjoining central parts of south Bay of Bengal.  It is likely to increase becoming 220-230 gusting to 255 kmph over northern parts of central Bay of Bengal and adjoining North Bay of Bengal from tonight to  19^th May morning, likely to increase further becoming 230-240 gusting to 265 kmph by tonight.
• Gale wind speed reaching 220-230 gusting to 255 kmph over north Bay of Bengal from 19^th morning and gradually decrease becoming 155- 165 kmph gusting to 180 kmph by 20^th evening.

(3) Sea condition: Sea condition will be Phenomenal over west-central and adjoining central parts of south Bay of Bengal during next 24 hours. It will become Phenomenal over northern parts of central Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Bay of Bengal on 19^th May and over north Bay of Bengal on 20^th May 2020.

(4) Fishermen Warning

• The fishermen are advised not to venture into west-central and adjoining central parts of south Bay of Bengal during next 24 hours, to the central Bay of Bengal on 19^th May and into North Bay of Bengal during 19^th to 20^th May 2020.
• Also, fishermen are advised not to venture into North Bay of Bengal along and off North Odisha, West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh coasts during 18^th to 20^th May 2020.

(5)Storm Surge expected

• Storm Surge of about 4-5 meters above Astronomical Tide is likely to inundate low lying areas of south & north 24 Parganas and about 3-4 meters over the low lying areas of East Medinipur District of West Bengal during the time of Landfall. (Figure enclosed)

(6)Damage Expected and Action suggested

(a) West Bengal (East Medinipur, south & north 24 Parganas, Howrah, Hoogli, Kolkata districts)

Damage Expected:

• Extensive damage to all types of kutcha houses, some damage to old badly managed Pucca structures. The potential threat from flying objects.
• Extensive uprooting of communication and power poles.
• Disruption of rail/road link at several places.
• Extensive damage to standing crops, plantations, orchards.
• Blowing down of Palm and coconut trees.
• The uprooting of large bushy trees.
• Large boats and ships may get torn from their moorings.

Fishermen Warning & Action Suggested:

• Total suspension of fishing operations from 18th to 20th May 2020.
• Diversion or suspension of rail and road traffic.
•  People in affected areas to remain indoors. Mobilise evacuation from Low lying areas.
• Movement in motorboats and small ships not advisable.

(b) Odisha (Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapara, Bhadrak, Balasore, Jajpur & Mayurbhanj)

Damage Expected:

• Total destruction of thatched houses/ extensive damage to kutcha houses. The potential threat from flying objects.
• Bending/ uprooting of power and communication poles.
• Major damage to Kutcha and Pucca roads. Minor disruption of railways, overhead power lines and signalling systems.
• Widespread damage to standing crops, plantations, orchards, falling of green coconuts and tearing of palm fronds. Blowing down of bushy trees like mango.
• Small boats, country crafts may get detached from moorings.

Fishermen Warning & Action Suggested:

• Total suspension of fishing operations from 18th to 20th May 2020.
• Diversion or suspension of rail and road traffic.
•  People in affected areas to remain indoors.
• Movement in motorboats and small ships not advisable.

Kindly visit www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in and www.mausam.imd.gov.in for updates on the system.

(See graphic/ pictures below)

Figure: Storm Surge forecast from INCOIS

Storm Surge of about 4-5 meters above Astronomical Tide is likely to inundate low lying areas of south & north 24 Parganas and about 3-4 meters over the low lying areas of East Medinipur District of West Bengal during the time of Landfall.

About Post Author

Editor Desk

Antara Tripathy M.Sc., B.Ed. by qualification and bring 15 years of media reporting experience.. Coverred many illustarted events like, G20, ICC,MCCI,British High Commission, Bangladesh etc. She took over from the founder Editor of IBG NEWS Suman Munshi (15/Mar/2012- 09/Aug/2018 and October 2020 to 13 June 2023).

[email protected]

https://in.linkedin.com/in/sumanmunshi

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